Some of Australia’s leading economists have come together to back an evidence-based approach to criminal justice, warning that the country’s over-reliance on prisons is failing taxpayers as well as communities.

Today the Justice Reform Initiative announces Economists for Justice Reform, a coalition of top economists who believe that the economic argument against prisons as our default policy response to crime and disadvantage should be given much more weight. 

The group includes Professor Bruce Chapman AO, Saul Eslake, Nicki Hutley, Dr Mike Keating AC, John Piggot AO, John Quiggin, Glenn Withers AO, Justin Wolfers, Nicholas Biddle and Robert Breunig.

Adult imprisonment in Australia is estimated to cost over $7.3 billion a year for taxpayers.[i] In addition to being harmful and ineffective, the cost of keeping one adult in prison for a year is approximately $119,147 per annum[ii].

Youth detention spending has surged by almost $400 million in just five years, rising from $720 million in 2019-20 and more than doubling over the past decade. Youth detention now costs an average of $1.3 million per child per year — or more than $3,600 a day.[iii]

Despite this spending, recidivism rates in Australia are far higher than most comparable countries. 84% of children released from detention return to sentenced supervision within 12 months.[iv] 45% of adults released from prison return to prison within two years.[v] International experts recently gave evidence to federal and state parliamentary inquiries on how their youth justice systems provide better results for children and community safety with lower costs.

Justice Reform Initiative Executive Director Dr Mindy Sotiri said the economic case for justice reform should be viewed alongside decades of evidence that show that prisons are ineffective at reducing crime,

“For decades, governments have not been sufficiently accountable for the economic and social cost of our failed prison and youth detention centres. It is time we put the failure of this vast public expenditure under the spotlight,” said Dr Sotiri.

“The research is very clear, that instead of reducing crime or promoting community safety, incarceration increases the likelihood of reoffending. For too long, politicised policy making has resulted in governments spending more and more on expensive, harmful and ineffective imprisonment, instead of investing in what the evidence shows actually works to build safer communities.”

“When politicians try to outdo each other in law-and-order contests, it comes at enormous cost to taxpayers and does nothing to build community safety. Money that could be going to hospitals, schools, early-intervention and prevention and other services that communities need is instead being poured into building more prisons and youth detention centres.”

“In 2021 the Productivity Commission warned that Australia’s failed ‘tough on crime’ policies weren’t creating a safer society and we needed to look at alternatives to prison to achieve better outcomes. In recent years, too many states and territories have doubled down on prisons as the default approach to crime.

“It’s time for governments around Australia to take a fresh look at their position and follow the evidence on what actually works to improve community safety. This means things like First Nations led place-based programs, intensive bail support, early intervention, diversion, family support, and community-led programs.”  

About the Economists for Justice Reform

Professor Nicholas Biddle is the Head of the School of Politics and International Relations at the Australian National University. He is a quantitative social scientist, with research spanning public policy, Indigenous economic participation and behavioural economics, and he sists on the Australian Statistics Advisory Council.

Professor Robert Breunig is the director of the Tax and Transfer Policy Institute at the Crawford School of Public Policy and a fellow of the Australian Academy of Social Science.  Since 2025, he has held the title of national President of the Economic Society of Australia, and between 2015 to 2016 he was the Director of the Crawford School of Public Policy.

Professor Bruce Chapman AO is an Emeritus Professor of Economics at the Australian National University and the architect of the Higher Education Contribution Scheme. He was the recipient of the Economics Society of Australia Distinguished Economist award in 2015, and the Order of Australia for contributions to economic policy in 2020. He has published more than 300 papers and advised governments on economic policy for almost four decades.

Saul Eslake is one of the country’s most senior economists, with over 40 years of experience, including thirty years as chief economist at several financial institutions. He has also served on a variety of government advisory panels in Australia, covering statistics, foreign affairs and trade, tourism, housing and the arts. Saul currently serves on the Advisory Panels for the Australian Parliamentary Budget Office.

Nicki Hutley is a highly respected economic practitioner who has worked in financial and investment markets with a particular interest in the intersection of economy, society and environment. Nicki is a member of the Australian Business Economists’ executive committee and a past president of the Economics Society of Australia (NSW branch).

Dr Michael Keating AC previously worked as the Head of the Division at the OECD that coordinated the OECD economic forecasts and policy advice. He was later responsible for assessing the medium-term economic prospects of OECD member countries and the demands on their governments. Dr Keating’s interests as an economist have been in macroeconomic policy, with a focus on fiscal policy and labour markets.

Professor John Piggot AO is the Director of the UNSW Centre for Population Ageing Research (CEPAR) within the UNSW Business School, where he is the Scientia Professor of Economics. A former Australian Professorial Fellow, his research has appeared in leading international economics and actuarial academic journals. In 2024, John received the UNSW Business School Staff Excellence Lifetime Achievement Award for Impact.

Professor John Quiggin is a Professor in Economics at The University of Queensland and is prominent both as a research economist and as a commentator on Australian economic policy. He has produced over 1500 publications, including six books and over 250 journal articles, in fields including decision theory, environmental economics, production economics, and the theory of economic growth.

Professor Glenn Withers AO is an emeritus Professor of Economics in the Crawford School of Public Policy and was founding CEO of Universities Australia. Prior to that he was Professor of Public Policy at ANU and at the Australia and New Zealand School of Government. He is a Monash graduate and Harvard PhD, a Menzies, Knox and Fulbright Scholar, and has held academic posts in Australia and overseas including at Harvard and Cambridge. He has been an adviser to government, private sector and community sector organisations in Australia and overseas, ranging from the Business Council of Australia to the OECD and UNDP. Professor Withers was made an Officer of the Order of Australia for services to applied economics, including for the design of the Australian immigration points system.

Justin Wolfers is a professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan and a visiting professor of economics at the University of Sydney. He was previously a visiting professor at Princeton, an associate professor at Wharton, an assistant professor at Stanford Graduate School of Business, and an economist with the Reserve Bank of Australia. Justin was named by the International Monetary Fund as one of the "25 economists under 45 shaping the way we think about the global economy." 

About the Justice Reform Initiative

The Justice Reform Initiative is a multi-partisan alliance supported by more than 120 of our most eminent Australians, including two former Governors-General, former Members of Parliament from all sides of politics, academics, respected Aboriginal leaders, senior former judges, including High Court judges, and others who have added their voices to end Australia’s dangerously high reliance on jails.

The Initiative is calling for governments around Australia to move away from an entrenched reliance on incarceration as the mainstay of the criminal justice system and adopt an evidence-based approach to deliver better results for taxpayers, communities and people in the criminal justice system.

The Initiative respectfully acknowledges and supports the current and longstanding efforts of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people to reduce the numbers of Indigenous people incarcerated in Australia and, importantly, the leadership role which Indigenous-led organisations continue to play on this issue. We also acknowledge the work of many other individuals and organisations seeking change, such as those focused on the rate of imprisonment for women, people with mental health issues, people with disability and others.

Media contact: Pia Akerman 0412 346 746