Justice Reform Initiative Media Release, 27 February 2025

Premier Chris Minns’ boast about the rising number of people in prison in NSW is entirely out of step with priorities to reduce crime and keep communities safer. It also demonstrates a devastating lack of commitment to the National Agreement on Closing the Gap.

Under questioning about regional crime during budget estimates on Wednesday, Mr Minns pointed to increases in remand numbers in NSW as a sign that the government was prioritising community safety.

Justice Reform Initiative Executive Director Dr Mindy Sotiri said an increasing prison population is not an indicator of reduced crime.

“It is tone-deaf and incredibly misleading for Premier Minns to suggest that putting more people on remand is working to keep communities safe,” Dr Sotiri said.

“The increases in the NSW adult prison population, and the increases in the NSW children’s prison population, have nothing to do with crime rates — the increases are a direct consequence of punitive changes to bail laws.”

“All the evidence shows that the earlier children have interaction with the criminal justice system, the more likely they are to cycle in and out of it for years to come. That’s a bad result for children and for community safety.”

“This ill-informed vast expenditure on increasing incarceration also diverts government spending from family violence programs, mental health, education, family support and other key programs in country regions which are proven to reduce crime and make communities safer.”

According to recent BOCSAR data, the NSW youth prison population increased by 32% in the 12 months to December 2024. Of the 225 young people in prison, 76% were on remand.

Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander children accounted for 57% of the youth prison population—a spike of 21.7% in just 12 months. BOCSAR reported that 68% of Aboriginal young people in custody are from Regional NSW.

The most recent Productivity Commission data shows that the rate of First Nations children’s incarceration in NSW has been trending up over the last five years.

“In NSW, we are failing to Close the Gap and failing to meet the needs of First Nations children living in regional areas. This is not an outcome to brag about,” Dr Sotiri said.

“The Senate Inquiry into Australia’s Youth Justice and Incarceration System has already highlighted the chronic lack of diversionary and bail-support programs, particularly in

regional and remote areas. Rather than boasting about punitive measures, the NSW Government should be investing in community-led, evidence-based alternatives that tackle the underlying drivers of why children come into contact with police”.

“It is not about excusing crime or minimising its impact but ensuring children have access to the right support within their community when they need it and real opportunities to break cycles of crime and incarceration. Deepening a child’s involvement with the system by making bail more difficult means they are more likely to lose their community connections, and more likely to have entrenched justice system involvement.”

“We need parliamentarians from all sides of politics to refrain from engaging in law-and-order politics. It serves nobody. Our communities deserve legislative and policy settings that are based on the evidence about what actually works to reduce crime and build safer communities, not on political competitions about who can appear to be tougher on crime”

The Justice Reform Initiative has recently published a series of position papers on key reform areas including youth justice, as well as reports outlining the success of evidence-based alternatives to prison.

Media contact: Amy Price 0437 027 156

The Initiative respectfully acknowledges and supports the current and longstanding efforts of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people to reduce the numbers of Indigenous people incarcerated in Australia and, importantly, the leadership role which Indigenous-led organisations continue to play on this issue. We also acknowledge the work of many other individuals and organisations seeking change, such as those focused on the rate of imprisonment for women, people with mental health issues, people with disability and others.